There was a note of despair in the voice of John Castrilli’s research officer when I called her to make an appointment on Monday to talk about the seat of Bunbury and its fate in next year’s state election.
“Oh Jeremy,” she sighed, “It’s not too early? You don’t think people have a bit of election fatigue?”
Perhaps, but certainly not here at the Mail. Now that the federal election, as enjoyable as that was for us, is out of the way we can turn our attention to the really fun stuff: the 2017 state election, which will be upon us much sooner than you think.
The announcement of Don Punch as Labor’s candidate for Bunbury is exciting news for the city. Mr Punch’s candidacy makes a race already interesting through the retirement of incumbent John Castrilli more fascinating still.
Bunbury lawyer Ian Morison will take up the Liberal mantle, but Mr Castrilli commands an impressive store of goodwill — senior estimates across parties have up to 20 per cent of his vote ascribed to some sort of strong personal love for the man.
Call it the Castrilli Premium, and how it is redistributed in March will be one of several deciding factors in the election.
Another is the running of a serious candidate by the Nationals, state president and Bunbury councillor James Hayward.
I’ve written before on this page of the calibre of representation in the South West and perhaps nowhere is this now more evident than in Bunbury.
Mr Castrilli himself laughs dismissively at a “Castrilli Premium”: “Well, thanks for saying that but I honestly don’t know. Everybody’s different, you know? Like everybody, I’ve got my good points and my bad points.
“They’ve preselected Ian as the candidate for Bunbury and he’s passionate about Bunbury. He’s got his own strengths, probably a bit different to me, but everybody’s different. Thank God not everybody’s like me.”
When Mr Castrilli won the seat from Labor’s Tony Dean in 2005 it was with a swing to Liberal of just 0.6 per cent. By the time of the next election that margin had ballooned to 12.6 per cent and by the 2013 election Mr Castrilli was commanding nearly 53 per cent of the primary vote.
The seat of Bunbury is traditionally a bellwether seat – as Bunbury goes so goes the state. From 1955 to 1983 it was solidly Liberal, but then during those years everything was solidly Liberal, the élan of the Whitlam years being slow to reach the provinces perhaps. It subsequently changed hands with metronomic regularity.
Veteran analyst Peter Kennedy told me that “Bunbury's less safe Liberal than Forrest is, but John Castrilli did turn it into a safe seat. Now, the challenge is whether in his absence that safe seat tag is retained.”
“The challenge for Ian Morison is to retain the margin that John Castrilli built up, but it's obviously going to be very hard. He doesn't have the personal following that Castrilli had because he was previously Bunbury mayor, and a popular Bunbury mayor, and at the last election Labor stocks were pretty low, not helped by an unpopular federal Labor government. So Mr Morison goes into the election without John Castrilli's personal following and with the Labor Party somewhat revitalised over the past few years so it poses a more significant threat.”
Martin Drum, a senior lecturer in politics at Notre Dame, said Bunbury is of interest because it's a seat that Labor has held in the past so obviously it has been prepared to vote Labor before.
“Labor doesn't have much traction in the South West. They do well in Collie and Albany because both of those areas have extremely well-known local MPs. But outside those areas they've struggled in recent times, so the candidate will matter enormously.
“And candidates are extra important in regional areas rather than in city areas because people identify with people they know much more so.”
Mr Castrilli will indeed be a tough act to follow, but Bunbury has an embarrassment of riches in its candidates.
– Jeremy Hedley
