Having correctly predicted the 2015 South West Football League Hayward Medal would be won by Busselton’s Chris Kane, Footy HQ – WA are back with their own special formula in a bid to forecast the 2016 champion.
In what has been a very competitive season, we are predicting 131 players will score at least one point with two stars to tie for the medal on 20 votes apiece.
If we assume our predictions are right (and they may or may not be) here is how the night will go down;
Harvey-Brunswick-Leschenault’s Kristin Thornton will be fast out of the gates notching best-on-ground performances in rounds two, four and five.
Add to this another pair of maximum votes in rounds eight and nine and Thornton will be well clear of the opposition at the halfway point of the count with 15 votes to his name.
One more three-point game in round 16 against Collie and a single vote in rounds 14 and 18 will put him at the top of the list.
Joining him on stage to accept the medal will be South Bunbury’s Brady London.
London won’t score in the first five rounds but will pick up enough points to sit on seven at the halfway point of the season.
A purple patch between rounds 11 and 15 will see him score in every game (3,3,3,2,2) before going quiet again. With three rounds to play London will hold the lead and hope Thornton wasn’t as prominent against Collie as we thought he was.
Having played for the two form sides this year, Thornton and London’s chances of winning may hinge on how many points their teammates steal away from them.
Thornton could be particularly threatened by his fellow Lions with Lloyd Beever and Eli Smith both predicted to finish inside the top five.
Despite only winning three games in 2016, Eaton’s Jace Cormack is forecast to round out the top five with 12 votes before five players tie for sixth position with 10 votes – including Augusta-Margaret River’s Ben Golowyn who will score all his points in the second half of the year.
2016 Hayward Medal – Top 10 predictions
1 Kristin Thornton, HBL, 20 votes
= Brady London, South Bunbury, 20 votes
3 Lloyd Beever, HBL, 14 votes
4 Eli Smith, HBL, 13 votes
5 Jace Cormack, Eaton, 12 votes
6 Josh Krispyn, Harvey, 10 votes
= Joel Mahar, Collie, 10 votes
= Michael Genovese, Harvey, 10 votes
= Harry Creasey, Bunbury, 10 votes
= Ben Golowyn, AMR, 10 votes
2016 votes by club prediction
South Bunbury Tigers, 79 votes
Harvey-Brunswick-Leschenault Lions, 79 votes
Collie Eagles, 76 votes
Bunbury Bulldogs, 68 votes
Harvey Bulls, 61 votes
Donnybrook Dons, 43 votes
Augusta-Margaret River Hawks, 42 votes
Busselton Magpies, 33 votes
Eaton Boomers, 29 votes
Carey Park Panthers, 21 votes
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