Victorians could be back on the beers by Christmas, according to modelling by the state's treasury department.
Metropolitan Melbourne is under tough stage four coronavirus restrictions, which include an overnight curfew and ban on travelling beyond a five-kilometre radius of home.
Regional Victoria is under stage three restrictions.
Both sets of restrictions are due to end on September 13.
Treasurer Tim Pallas told state parliament's COVID-19 inquiry on Wednesday the economy was expected to improve by mid-September.
"How quickly and how effective that process will be, I suppose history will judge," he told the Public Accounts and Estimate Committee.
Treasury secretary David Martine said modelling was based on stage four restrictions moving to stage three in mid-September and then stage two in the December quarter.
"We're not actually forecasting a bounce-back in the September quarter," Mr Martine said.
Previous stage two restrictions allowed for cafes, restaurants and pubs to reopen, while Victorians were able to host five visitors in their home and meet outside in groups of up to 10.
"Our economy is resilient and we will get through this but the best thing right now is to get on top of the health emergency so we can begin the task of economic recovery," Mr Pallas said.
He said unemployment could peak at 11 per cent in the three months to September, a two per cent rise on forecasts released last month, while job losses are expected to peak at 325,000.
Women and young people have been most affected by the coronavirus pandemic, Mr Pallas said, noting they were more likely to work in the worst-hit sectors including hospitality, social services, healthcare and retail.
"The nature of their employment tends to be more insecure," he said.
Premier Daniel Andrews said Mr Martine had to make assumptions for the modelling and a conclusion could not be drawn that the timing of reopening of the economy was a certainty.
"I would love to be able to confirm for you what we're going to be facing in October. We can't know that. We can only assume," Mr Andrews told reporters.
"I would just say that's a theoretical issue. The practical delivery of this strategy really does depend upon literally millions and millions of decisions that are made by individuals and families each and every day."
Australian Associated Press
